Belvedere Tiburon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS66 KMTR 070246
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
746 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

 - Moderate HeatRisk returns to portions of the Interior Bay Area
   and Central Coast Wednesday through next weekend.

 - Localized elevated fire weather conditions for the Bay Area and
   Central Coast Wednesday through next weekend.

 - Slight risk (20%-40%) of extreme heat for far interior portions
   of the Bay Area and Central Coast July 12th-14th.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The marine layer stratus is beginning its nocturnal push inland
as the sun begins to set. By morning, the coverage should be
slightly more expansive than today as low pressure offshore
allows the marine layer to deepen. Cool and moist will be the
theme through Tuesday before a ridge builds and brings inland
temperatures above normal Wed-Fri. Thursday looks like the warmest
day, but with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal, we are
only expecting moderate HeatRisk in inland and higher elevation
areas within the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay and Monterey and
San Benito Counties. A cooling trend should bring temps back to
normal this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 129 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

An upper-level cutoff low off the Northern California Coast will be
the defining feature of the short term forecast. Sensible weather
will feature seasonably cool conditions and onshore winds with gusts
up to 35 mph through gaps and passes, across ridgelines, and down
the Salinas Valley. The marine layer is currently being observed at
1,800 feet on the Fort Ord profiler and will continue to deepen to
3,000 feet by Tuesday. This, in addition to the stratus presentation
currently, means that it will have no problem penetrating farther
inland tonight and continuing that trend tomorrow night. There is
also a slight (15%) chance for drizzle along the coast and over the
waters due to the lifting mechanism in place. Southerly transport
winds may (you guessed it) transport smoke in from the Madre Fire
that is burning in San Luis Obispo through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 129 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

The pattern begins to change Wednesday as the upper-level cutoff low
becomes an open wave and gets nudged eastward by building broad high
pressure. This will kickoff the warming and drying trend with the
return of moderate HeatRisk and localized elevated fire weather
conditions. Fortunately, several rounds of upper-level shortwave
trough energy will help keep the ridge in check, not allowing the
axis or peak to enter our area. Global ensemble clusters are in
agreement with heights rising through Thursday with the ridge
showing signs of weakening, albeit slightly, Friday. This will
translate to Thursday being the warmest day of the week with
temperatures topping out at 10 degrees above normal with Friday
being slightly cooler. Global ensemble clusters diverge Saturday
with 51% in favor of heights rebuilding and 49% in favor of heights
falling, suggesting uncertainty in the forecast. The propagation
of what happens will be integral in the extended forecast as the
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has highlighted the far interior
portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast with a slight (20%-40%)
chance of extreme heat July 12th-14th, thus it is intuitive to
believe that if the ridge has more time to build that we could be
dealing with hotter conditions and subsequently greater impacts
than what are currently being forecast. In terms of elevated fire
weather conditions, high pressure and the accompanying subsidence
aloft will compress the marine layer to 1,000 feet Wednesday
resulting in little inland intrusion and poor to moderate relative
humidity recovery above it. Additionally, light offshore flow is
expected in the higher terrain during the morning hours of
Wednesday and Thursday. Please exercise fire and heat safety,
especially coming off of a cool June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High confidence for an early return of stratus tonight filling
into the coastal valleys and lowering early Monday morning. Low
clouds that do develop by Monday morning will likely scatter out
and/or clear by Monday afternoon, with the exception of immediate
coastal locations.

Vicinity of SFO...Medium confidence for MVFR ceilings to return
late tonight and potentially lowering to IFR at times early Monday
morning. Stratus is forecast to scatter out between 16Z-17Z
Monday morning giving way to VFR through the afternoon

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to
return this evening and lower to LIFR at times early Monday
morning. Also high confidence in clearing to VFR at more inland
sites like KSNS, but lower confidence along the coast and around
KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1048 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Fresh northwesterly breezes will continue today for the outer
waters and coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Winds
gradually begin to slack Monday with moderate to fresh breezes
forecast through Wednesday with a surface low positioned over the
outer waters. Northwesterly winds increase and significant wave
heights build beginning late in the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...RGass

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